On this page, we tried to help you understand why mountain weather forecasting is a challenge. While EnviroCan is certainly up to that challenge, they don’t take it on. EnviroCan does not issue forecasts for places like Upper Kananaskis Lake or Burstall Pass. So who does “good” forecasting for the mountains?
It’s all about the models
First, realize that virtually all weather forecasts are model driven. A good forecast for here requires detailed terrain models. Second, you all know that the terrain here changes a lot in very short distances. A good model for here has fine resolution.
The following are what we have found to be the most comprehensive and accurate sources of forecasts and raw data for Kananaskis. All have high resolution and detailed terrain models built in. All the examples we will show will be the data for a hypothetical trip that we would take up to Rawson Lake and Sarrail Ridge above the lake. The trailhead start is at 1,720 m, the lake is 2,025 m, and the ridge above the lake is 2,400 m.
SpotWX
If you want to look at the raw data that goes into the EnviroCan forecast (and many other forecast models), look no further than SpotWX.com. A statistician will tell you that the BEST WAY to figure out what’s going to happen is to look at a LOT of models, look at where they agree and disagree, and decide for yourself. SpotWX.com lets you do that, and a whole lot more. Drop a pin anywhere on the planet and you can see the raw modeling forecasts for that point. There are between 8 and 20 forecasts available of varying resolution, depending on where you are looking. There are short-term and long-term models from Environment Canada and the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. In the US, NOAA collects the data and does the analysis and forecasting, the National Weather Service disseminates it. The US NOAA is the parent agency of the NWS.
The Canadian HRDPS (High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System) forecast is the highest resolution, making forecasts for 2.5 sq. km. areas, and it goes out 48 hrs from when the model was run – perfect for planning tomorrow’s adventure. We dropped the spot pin on the Upper Kan parking lot, and you can see the size of the model grid cell in green in the picture to the right. The forecast that comes up, part of which is shown below right, says that it’s for an elevation of 1,973 m, so about half way between the start and Rawson Lake. The forecast provides hourly data for temperature, dewpoint, relative humidity, precipitation, cloud percentage, wind speed & direction, and then winds “aloft” from 20 m to 120 m above ground.
If you click in the two grid cells to the west & southwest, their elevations are 2,095 m (basically the level of Rawson Lake) and 2,361 m (basically the ridge height). So with these three forecasts, you’re going to get a great idea of how things will change with elevation.
The US HRRR forecast (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) is also fine resolution with a 3 sq. km grid, but only goes out 18 hrs.
The other forecasts get very large grid cells indeed (the grid cell for the Canadian GEPS forecast covers half of K-Country, for example) so aren’t useful for planning tomorrow — but maybe helpful for getting a general idea of what will happen later this week or next.
Mountain-Forecast.Com
Mountain-Forecast.com is generated out of the UK. They have a sister site called Snow-Forecast that is tied to downhill skiing areas which is also a good reference. They have another called Surf-Forecast which you can look at when you go to Maui! All of their forecasts are purely computer modeled, though with a detailed terrain model built in (which EnviroCan does not use). However, what sets them apart is that their forecasts are tuned to mountain areas. We have followed them for years. They have mountain specific forecasts for over 100 individual mountains in Kananaskis.
Mountain-Forecast breaks the day down into forecasts for 2 and 8 hour increments, and the 8 hr forecast is free (4 AM – noon, noon- 8 PM, 8 PM to 4 AM). They re-run their models 3 times a day, so they change their forecasts a lot. They have pretty simple graphics that are easy to scan and understand. You can pay to become a member and access hourly forecasts for 3 days and other stuff, but we find the free 6 day forecasts good enough.
They don’t have a forecast for Rawson or Mt. Sarrail, but they do have a forecast for Mt. Foch next door shown above right. They forecast 4 elevations: 3,194 m (the summit), 2,500 m (about the ridge height), 2,000 m (about Rawson Lake height) and 1,500 m (which makes no sense to us because you can’t get that low in a 20 km radius).
Mountain-Forecast.com is very good but far from perfect:
- Mountain-Forecast has very reliable predictions of temperatures, freezing levels and winds. We choose how warm to dress using this data each day when we ski.
- Their cloud cover forecasts are not bad; call it 60%. We pick sunglasses based on it, but always carry backups.
- Their forecasts of precipitation are 75% or better. If Mountain-Forecast says it will rain or snow, it’s a good bet it will do it. However, there’s a lot of time where they predict no precip and it dumps.
- Their forecasts of the amount precipitation accumulation are rotten. They’ll predict 10 cm of snow, we’ll get 2. Or 20. They’ll predict 1 mm of rain, we’ll get 25 mm. We put no faith in their predicted precipitation amounts whatsoever.
There are a few more resources that are good sources for weather data and forecasts. Several are particularly good for predicting winter pow days for you skiers out there.
Avalanche.ca
Avalanche.ca has several weather pages with tons of very technical info. Not only is it kept updated in the winter but in the summer as well. Forecasts are available for up to 7 days out. Also amazing, it’s generated to be mountain specific by the smart folks at EnviroCan.
But the best part is that the main page hosts the access to the automated weather stations used by Kananaskis Mountain Rescue. When these stations work (which is most of the time), you can get live hourly temperature and precipitation data from places like the Highwood Pass, Aster Lake, Burstall Pass and Burstall parking lot. It’s really good to ground truth SpotWX or Mountain-Weather’s forecasts by comparing it against actual conditions. Highly recommended.
University of Washington
The University of Washington’s School of Meteorology post a stand-alone 72 hr precipitation forecast model run, and you can see it here. We find it better at predicting precipitation than the Mountain-Forecast prediction model, and the displays are better, too (though it SUCKS to use on a mobile device).
Alberta Environment and Parks
Alberta Environment & Parks maintains snow pillows at a few locations in K-Country. These are fully automated stations that provide input to water supply forecasting. The charts they produce are good in the winter to see precipitation events and in the spring to see the snow melt off pace. You can find it here by just checking the box next to Snow Pillows on the right.
SnowCast.ca
“New” in the game is SnowCast.ca. We’re not huge fans, but it’s worthy of note. It’s an experimental snow forecasting website focused on the Bow Valley area, from the folks at the University of Saskatchewan. The UofS does a LOT of water supply forecasting, and their main man Dr. John Pomeroy just opened a lab in Canmore. They basically do advanced analysis of the HRDPS using a hydrological modelling tool. They only forecast precipitation, and their displays aren’t hugely intuitive. It’s beyond the scope of this page to talk about Pomeroy’s research (a subject for another page, probably), but bookmark that site and keep an eye on it.
WindyTV
Windy.com is popular with some hiking guides. Once you can figure out the interface, you have the ability to merge historical actuals with forecast model runs, though only 3 runs are available (unlike SpotWX’s 8-20 models). The displays are much nicer than SpotWX, but the confusing interface makes it hard to get what you want.
As if all of those aren’t enough, there are enough weather apps to burn your phone battery down to nothing in no time. Tools like Weather Underground, Pivotal Weather, Snow Seekers, and even the Weather Network can offer interesting takes.
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